[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111811 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111811Z - 111945Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASING AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATE SLOW AIRMASS
RECOVERY OCCURRING ACROSS NERN CO WITH INDICATIONS OF A DEVELOPING
DENVER CYCLONE. TCU BANDS HAVE ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL CO ROCKIES OVER THE PAST HOUR WITHIN STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. CONTINUED HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ADJACENT PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON WHERE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY UNFOLD
INITIALLY N OF A COS TO LIC LINE...HOWEVER WITH TIME PERSISTENT
STRATUS DECK TO THE S SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED ON THE PLATTEVILLE AND GRANADA
PROFILERS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

..MEAD.. 08/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

40990557 41020389 40590322 39550294 38410290 38000359
37840458 38620560 39660601 

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