[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111722 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX/SRN AR/NRN LA/NW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111722Z - 111945Z

INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO NRN MS. WET
MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. ALTHOUGH WW NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS AR THIS AFTERNOON INVOF EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT. PERIPHERY OF
ONGOING COMPLEX WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS HAS WARMED IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S F...IN MIDST OF UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE
CINH EXISTS...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG.

IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL /DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25 KTS/. THIS SUGGESTS
PULSE MODE AND/OR LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT. WET MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS.

..GUYER.. 08/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

32139544 32509494 33559320 34069119 34978988 34258942
33549000 32669108 31669314 31279474 

WWWW