[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111559 
NYZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-111730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS ERN PA/NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111559Z - 111730Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY SWD INTO ERN PA/NJ. MODIFICATION OF 12Z OKX
SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS MLCAPES OF AROUND
1500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER ERN PA/NWRN NJ MAY TEND TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS LOCAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
SYNOPTIC FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF NY/PA OR
CONFLUENCE ZONE LOCATED FARTHER E INVOF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THOUGH REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE MODEST WSWLY FLOW...APPROACH OF MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE OH VALLEY WILL EFFECTIVELY
STRENGTHEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS.
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ SHOULD
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
CAN DEVELOP.

..MEAD.. 08/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

44207525 44077290 39437355 39577583 

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