[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111149 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-111345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111149Z - 111345Z

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF SERN OK INTO NERN TX
THIS MORNING AS MCS MOVES ESEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN AR.

A WELL ORGANIZED MCS WITH STRONG MESOLOW AND OUTFLOW SURGE WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE ESE ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD INTO MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AR. WHILE MCS APPEARS TO BE
OUTRUNNING STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MO/MID MS VALLEYS...DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION TO THE MCS...AND MOIST WEAKLY CAPPED UPSTREAM
AIRMASS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS AT LEAST SERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE NOW SURGING ACROSS SCNTRL OK.

ADDITIONALLY...MARGINAL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM POST-FRONTAL
STORMS INCREASING ACROSS NRN AR. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WAS IN
PROXIMITY TO STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY NOT SUPPORT THE NEED FOR A
WATCH.

..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

33589617 34009732 36329403 35329126 33159488 

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