[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111631 
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-111800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA SWWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111631Z - 111800Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND ADJACENT VA PIEDMONT.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE FROM N OF ROA TO N OF HKY. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE
VA/NC PIEDMONT REGION HAS WARMED INTO THE 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE GREAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM
THE DELMARVA REGION SWD ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER WIND SHEAR PROFILES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR NRN PORTIONS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

..MEAD.. 08/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

37397962 39287812 39277571 35527862 35738094 

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