[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071817 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-071945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND/SD AND EXTREME ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071817Z - 071945Z

THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN ND AND
PERHAPS NWRN SD BY 20Z.

COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF ISN TO EAST OF MLS TO SHR AT 18Z.
A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE MT/SD BORDER WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR PHP AND THEN NEWD TO WEST OF
ABR. SURFACE WINDS WERE ELY NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT. 

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
SD...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS WRN ND/EXTREME ERN MT.
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND ALL MODELS
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS BY
21Z...AS CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT IS ENHANCED BY AN 
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER N CENTRAL MT. STRENGTHING MID
LEVEL WINDS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..IMY.. 08/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

45600402 47500419 48900393 48910135 45590017 43690085
43810262 44440367 

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