[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071623 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-071900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071623Z - 071900Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH DIAMETERS LESS THAN 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.  WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED DUE TO MARGINAL AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT...BUT 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EWD...BRINGING 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -17 TO -20 C OVER NEW ENGLAND.
 
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S F AND WITH SOME
HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP....AND SOME WILL
LIKELY HAVE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LESS THAN 1.00" DIAMETER.  WIND
PROFILES ARE WEAK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...THUS STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LIVED.

THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR HAIL WILL BE OVER ME...WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID 50S F.

..JEWELL.. 08/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

42277094 42397182 42627337 43567435 44617442 45017451
45027146 45277137 45327092 45897026 46707001 47486923
47456908 47306908 47196887 47386826 47066779 45736776
45596744 45206735 44806697 44516798 44066919 43447042 

WWWW