[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072044 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-072245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME WRN KS / SWRN NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072044Z - 072245Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES TROUGH EXTENDS SWD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER WAVE
NOW MOVING THROUGH AND HELPING TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. 
ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE RATHER LIGHT...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
STEEP. AT THE SURFACE...DRY SURGE HAS DECREASED DEWPOINTS INTO NRN
CO...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F INTO
EXTREME ERN CO.  DEWPOINTS IN WRN KS IN THE MID 60S F WILL LIKELY
MIX INTO THE 50S AS HEATING CONTINUES. AS A RESULT...MLCAPE TO 2000
J/KG IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS FOR SOME LARGE HAIL...WITH PULSE / MULTICELLULAR
STORM MODE.  AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
A MYRIAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXPECTED.

..JEWELL.. 08/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

40500141 39310137 37060158 37140405 37800453 38720474
39410367 40530281 

WWWW