[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070728 
MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-070900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN WA/NRN ID INTO NWRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070728Z - 070900Z

THREAT FOR HAIL IS EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NERN WA/NRN ID INTO NWRN
MT THROUGH 12Z.  HAIL SIZES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW
SEVERE VALUES...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL EVENT.

COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-18 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES...AIDING IN MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WLY
500 MB JET AND 90 KT WLY 300 MB JET WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS
THROUGH 12Z.  MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STORM ROTATION.  HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 08/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

48981310 48181283 47471382 47031506 46841603 47521649
47981700 48351800 48571839 49001838 

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