[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070446 
TXZ000-070645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 070446Z - 070645Z

SLOW MOVING MCS NOW SHIFTING SWD AT 20 KT WILL CONTINUE SSEWD ALONG
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TX FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH ORGANIZED
NATURE OF LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATES AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS
ENTRENCHED FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NWWD JUST NORTH OF THE TRANS-PECOS
REGION OF WEST TX...WITH A SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO CENTRAL
TX.  EXPECT ONGOING MCS WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SSEWD ALONG THIS
GRADIENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AS FEED OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR PERSISTS 
WITHIN SELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW.  AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED AND 
DEEP LAYER FLOW IS VERY WEAK...BOTH OF WHICH WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF
DOWNDRAFTS/SURFACE WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 
HOWEVER...BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG WNWRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/MCS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
THIS SUGGESTS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL /MITIGATED BY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT/ AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN
THIS REGION.  ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO TRAIN FROM COCHRAN/HOCKLEY/YOAKUM
COUNTIES SEWD TOWARDS MITCHELL/COKE/NOLAN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...ENHANCING THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

..EVANS.. 08/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...FWD...EWX...

32160151 33300272 33700215 32560058 31850064 

32869999 31469870 30459899 30389990 31600142 33140228 

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