[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061940 
TXZ000-NMZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE...EXTREME E-CENTRAL NM ALONG TX
BORDER

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061940Z - 062145Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG WRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  WHILE
IT REMAINS COOL E OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WERE RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S JUST W...ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER.

FOCUSED CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCED BY
LARGE SCALE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  AS HEATING CONTINUES...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. 
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RATHER SLOWLY AS OF
1930Z...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INCREASE QUALITY OF MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ON MOIST SIDE OF
SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  IN ADDITION TO LOW-END SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS...AREA VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY
FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH 0-1 KM VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 OVER THE
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY
20-25 KTS...SLOW STORMS MOTIONS WITH SLY COMPONENT WILL INCREASE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL SR WINDS...INCREASING FAVORABILITY FOR SUPERCELLULAR
STORM STRUCTURE.

..JEWELL.. 08/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

33740266 34090306 35250335 35740318 35930275 35860210
35000180 33740169 

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