[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061943 
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN WY / SWRN AND S CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061943Z - 062145Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THIS
REGION...ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND / HAIL THREAT.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S DEWPOINTS/ ACROSS NWRN WY INTO SWRN AND S CENTRAL MT. 
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE...WITH 500
TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED. 

INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN CYCLONIC SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
WEAKENING / MOVING NEWD TOWARD ALBERTA / SASKATCHEWAN. 
HOWEVER...SECOND FEATURE NOW CROSSING NRN NV SHOULD SPREAD
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV AND ENHANCED /30 TO 35 KT/ MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELD ACROSS NWRN WY AND INTO SWRN AND S CENTRAL MT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN WY / SWRN MT AND THEN SPREAD NEWD
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PARTS OF S CENTRAL MT.

DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST / INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS -- CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY / DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL --
PARTICULARLY AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO S CENTRAL
MT.

..GOSS.. 08/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...

44661118 46291160 46720970 46570727 45850630 44560703
43860878 43251103 

WWWW