[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061827 
MNZ000-NDZ000-062030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1901
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061827Z - 062030Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL ND
SSEWD INTO ERN SD.  PRESSURE FALLS EXIST ALONG AND E OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING EWD THROUGH THE AREA. AREA VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLE WIND
FIELDS FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW TO 40 KTS. THERMODYNAMICS ARE SUFFICIENT
FOR LOW-END SEVERE HAIL...AND MAY BECOME BETTER THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND A
CONTINUATION OF SURFACE HEATING WITHIN UPSTREAM AIR MASS.

..JEWELL.. 08/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46060063 46300098 47940062 49000086 48979723 46299679