[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060452 
MTZ000-060645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714...

VALID 060452Z - 060645Z

BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS NE MT WHERE A
MOIST TONGUE IS IN PLACE WITH LOWER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE
VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 06Z ACROSS NE MT SHOW
STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL SUPERCELL
THREAT WITHIN THE LINE. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY
THREAT DUE TO LINEAR ORGANIZATION ALONG COMMON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EWD TOWARDS THE ND BORDER AS
STRONG CAPPING IS WELL ENTRENCHED.

..BROYLES.. 08/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...

47020620 48300654 48720667 48850627 48710442 48040426
47120460 

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