[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051835 
MTZ000-WYZ000-052100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL/SWRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051835Z - 052100Z

TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN MT
WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL MT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO SRN ID.
FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...WITH 18Z BOI SOUNDING SHOWING 35KT WINDS AT 500MB AND 70KT
WINDS NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE.

MEANWHILE...INSOLATIONAL HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SWRN MTNS OF
MT WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENTLY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG. DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SWRN
QUARTER OF MT. LIFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE ENHANCED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IMPINGES
ON THE REGION FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE STORM
COVERAGE.

SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED T-STORMS...WHICH SHOULD
DEVELOP OFF THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WW LIKELY
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 08/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...

48621231 47481121 46070965 45200931 45001002 45011091
44821119 44711176 44581237 44621275 44881320 45241358
45571380 45981357 47011361 47831405 48911483 48961343 

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