[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051459
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051459 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-051700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / CENTRAL AND ERN NC / NRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051459Z - 051700Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND SERN VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS
THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INCREASES.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /LOW TO MID
70S DEWPOINTS/ IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VICINITY AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN VA WSWWD ACROSS TN.  ADDITIONAL AXIS
OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH
SHOULD BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AS SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. 
MAINLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALLOW STRONG
HEATING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN 1000 TO
2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.

FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX IS INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY OVER NERN TN
ATTM...ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 30 KT MID LEVEL WLYS.  AS THIS FEATURE
SHIFTS EWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIRMASS E OF THE
APPALACHIANS...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP / INCREASE FROM SERN
VA SWWD INTO NRN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON -- AHEAD OF ONGOING RAIN
BAND AND ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS / SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. 
WITH MODERATE / ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF ONE
OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SMALL-SCALE N-S LINES.  WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION
FOR TIMING OF WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 08/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

37337591 35757589 33917896 34168033 34918215 36997865 

WWWW