[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042122 
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-042345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1887
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...ERN/NERN WY...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...AND FAR
WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042122Z - 042345Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG AN AXIS FROM MLS TO SNY. WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR DAMAGING WIND/LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL. 

AT 21Z...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES AN ENEWD
PROGRESSION ACROSS N-CENTRAL WY AND WILL CREST 500MB RIDGE AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS ERN WY/ERN MT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PRESENCE
OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS INDUCING
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN WY
NWD ACROSS ERN MT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90F
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NERN WY NWD INTO
ERN MT. DESPITE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATELY
STRONG /30-35KT/ AND BILLINGS MT VAD INDICATES 40-45KTS OF SFC-6KM
SHEAR...WITH 30-35KT PER MEDICINE BOW PROFILER IN SERN WY.
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM SERN MT SSEWD TO THE NEB
PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH
LONGER-LIVED STORMS AS CELLS TRACK EWD AROUND 25 KT.

..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

44020327 43470323 42780309 41100303 41090451 43330597
44110660 45320751 46000773 46610749 46850609 46700434
46090406 

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