[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042057 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-042330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE AND NWRN
TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042057Z - 042330Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA INCLUDING NERN NM/SERN CO/WRN OK
PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD ACROSS WRN KS
IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN CO/NERN NM AT THE
PRESENT TIME. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW-MID 50S ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND RANGE TO THE LOW 60S
ACROSS SERN CO. LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING IS CONTRIBUTING TO SFC-6KM
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25-30KT...AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW
LONG-LIVED/SEVERE CELLS. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD WITH
LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFT ACTIVITY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CORES.

..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

37660502 38040491 38540475 38650421 38590285 38140238
37630206 36930202 36070202 35730230 35130361 34860465
34680564 34680607 36430548 

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