[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042148 
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-042345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...NJ...MD...DE...FAR NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708...

VALID 042148Z - 042345Z

SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY EWD WITH A THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE EXTENDING EAST OF WW 708 THIS EVENING. A
NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF THE LINE CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND REMAIN
STRONG AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS MD AND SE PA.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS NRN PA AND NJ. A LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS IS TRACKING EWD
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WLY 850 MB JET PUNCHING EWD ACROSS SRN PA BEHIND THE LINE.
THE JET MAX WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE LINE HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS SFC TEMPS COOL THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE AT SEVERE LEVELS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. MODEL FORECASTS
STRENGTHEN THE JET BEHIND THE LINE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND
THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 08/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

39147844 40887667 41117562 40907408 39137479 38977586 

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