[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042038 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-042245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN TX...AND FAR SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042038Z - 042245Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EWD TO THE SWRN OK/NWRN TX BORDER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED NATURE
OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. 

AT 2025Z...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM HEREFORD COUNTY TX
ESEWD TO NEAR SPS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
HAVE ELIMINATED CIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
BEING ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES
BETWEEN 20-25 KT. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND SHOULD LIMIT
HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH DOWNBURST ACTIVITY UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER
SUNSET. STORMS WILL TRACK GENERALLY SEWD AT 5-10KT.

..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

34849918 34569807 34069789 33639846 33629941 33580025
33750160 34050292 34630352 35070326 35290271 35310171
35090039 

WWWW