[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042003 
MTZ000-IDZ000-042200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1883
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN/CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042003Z - 042200Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
W-CENTRAL/WRN MT. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

AT 1950Z...CU CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND WRN MT AND NRN ID. HEATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONG /40-50KT/ BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS ERN MT AND TROUGH ACROSS NWRN PACIFIC. THESE WIND FIELDS
POTENTIALLY SUPPORTS A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
FROM ERN MT NWWD TO HVR. DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
W-CENTRAL/WRN MT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE WEAK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING FROM HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL TRACK ENEWD AT 25-30 KT ACROSS WRN INTO N-CENTRAL MT BY
EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW SEVERE CELLS WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES /
700-500MB OF 8-8.5 C/KM / SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND
STRONG MID-LEVEL WSWLY WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.

..BANACOS.. 08/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...OTX...

45721427 45861510 48061651 48881642 48930867 47720791
47080797 46051070 45851244 

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