[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032055 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-032230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...IA / NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696...

VALID 032055Z - 032230Z

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW.  NEW WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED
COVERING PARTS OF IA AND PERHAPS NWRN IL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.


LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS ORGANIZED / BOWING CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS
S CENTRAL / SERN MN AND ADJACENT NRN IA...INTO WW 697. 
MEANWHILE...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SWWD ACROSS NERN AND INTO
CENTRAL IA ALONG OUTFLOW...WHERE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
IS INDICATED.

AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO THIS REGION THIS EVENING...EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE S OF ONGOING BOWING
CLUSTER.  SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL -- AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
NEAR AND JUST N OF CENTRAL IA WARM FRONT.  

WITH TIME HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.  IT APPEARS THAT STORMS
MAY ORGANIZE ALONG INTO A BOWING LINE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD
POOL...WHICH SHOULD THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO NWRN IL AND
PERHAPS NERN MO LATER THIS EVENING -- WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT
TRENDING TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS.

..GOSS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

42709325 42719038 42298976 40459020 39809140 40509344
41399523 41819470 

WWWW