[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032059 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-032300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK AND OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX
PANHANDLE...SWRN AND CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032059Z - 032300Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FROM
CENTRAL KS SWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AT 2045Z...TOWERING CU HAVE INCREASED IN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
REGIME FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL KS. REGION IS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W-CENTRAL
TX...WITH PREVAILING SWLY 20-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND 20-25 KT
SFC-6KM SHEAR. ABSENCE OF FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT SUGGEST T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL RELY ON BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N-CENTRAL KS SWWD INTO THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AROUND 40F SUGGEST ISOLATED DRY MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
AXIS...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINTAINING THREAT
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH SUNSET.

..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

37080132 39029872 38829786 38439733 37919728 37319735
36339810 35849889 35180017 35250218 36340258