[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032000 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-032200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB / W CENTRAL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032000Z - 032200Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NERN NEB / W CENTRAL IA.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS REGION SW OF WW 696.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT ACROSS E CENTRAL NEB
/ W CENTRAL IA...WITH TEMPERATURES S OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S AND MEAN-LAYER CAPE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH
STORMS HAVE REMAINED WEAK THUS FAR -- AND LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE
LOW-LEVEL CAP...CONTINUED HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW STORMS
TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MODIFICATION OF ETA PFCS WOULD SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WITH
CAP NEARLY ELIMINATED CONSIDERING THE LOW 90S OVER LOW 70S BOUNDARY
LAYER.

ASSUMING SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP...VEERING WIND PROFILES
WHICH INCREASE WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT
ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS.  ALTHOUGH MAIN THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE
LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING
COULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
MESOSCALE LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH TIME -- AND THUS A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR SIGNS OF WEAKENING CAP /
MORE SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41909851 42509664 42579510 41989425 41269424 41139644
41359864 

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