[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031953 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-032200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT...NWRN SD...SWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031953Z - 032200Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN MT/NERN
WY/SWRN ND/NWRN SD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH LONGER LIVED STORMS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AT 1930Z...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG NERN WY/SERN MT BORDER WHILE TRACKING ENEWD.
CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL MT SSEWD INTO THE BIG HORN MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BLACK HILLS NWWD ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND INTO N-CENTRAL MT.

UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD SPREAD EWD AND ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO NWRN SD/SWRN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL ELY TO SELY WINDS EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...INSOLATION HAS BEEN LIMITED
BY CLOUDS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY...AND MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT. A FEW LONGER LIVED CELLS
MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL WITH EWD
PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...BUT
OVERALL THREAT MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..BANACOS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

43900598 45760674 46750606 47040490 46900333 46290246
45800221 45180203 44650201 44130220 43820264 43470420 

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