[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031221 
SDZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-031315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN SD...EXTREME SWRN
MN...EXTREME NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693...

VALID 031221Z - 031315Z

SEVERE WIND PRODUCING MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN SRN FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...MAINTAINING THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS.  SEVERAL DAMAGE
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS WW 693 DOMAIN INCLUDING MEASURED
GUST OF 52 KT AT PIR WITHIN PAST HOUR. SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY
HAS BEEN APPARENT IN REFLECTIVITY COMPOSITES DURING PAST HALF
HOUR...HOWEVER FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. 
ANOTHER WW MAY BE NECESSARY SE OF WW 693.

SHORT-TERM PROGS INDICATE ELY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED
AHEAD OF CONVECTION ACROSS SERN SD...20-25 KT SPEEDS CONTINUING
WITHIN FIRST KM AGL.  THIS YIELDS 50-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PEAK MUCAPES 3000-3500
J/KG AND SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG.  AXIS OF MAX BUOYANCY EXTENDS SEWD
ACROSS FSD AREA AND MN/IA/SD BORDER JUNCTION...THEN ONWARD INTO NWRN
IA.  THIS GENERAL CONFIGURATION OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.  IF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN
SURVIVE PERIOD OF BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLING AND LOSS OF LLJ JUST ABOVE
SFC -- AROUND 14-16Z -- IT MAY MOVE WELL INTO IA.  IN SHORT
TERM...DAMAGE THREAT WILL IMPINGE UPON PORTIONS BUFFALO/HAND/
JERAULD/AURORA/SANBORN/BEADLE COUNTIES.

..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

43459914 43740046 45020030 44759905 

43429912 44729901 44479752 44249648 43989610 43619587
43169612 42889641 43009701 

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