[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031004 
SDZ000-031200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN AND CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693...

VALID 031004Z - 031200Z

TSTM CLUSTER AND ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO OVER WRN SD HAS CONSOLIDATED
INTO PRONOUNCED SMALL MCS...STILL WITH SEVERE BOW ECHO PER RADAR
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS.  IR CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY
OR COOLED FOR MOST OF PAST HOUR.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER
WW...ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH QUASISTATIONARY LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS
STANLEY/HUGHES/SULLY COUNTIES -- INCLUDING POSSIBLE DIRECT HIT OF
BOW ON PIR AREA.  COMPLEX THEN SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS
LYMAN/BUFFALO/HYDE COUNTIES WITH DAMAGING GUSTS.

INTERPOLATED VWP PLOTS AT 850 MB...AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS OVER
CENTRAL SD...SUGGEST THAT 20-30 KT SELY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR
TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER...YIELDING 50-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN
ENVIRONMENT OF 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE.  THEREFORE EXPECT SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER WW
AREA...WITH PROBABILITIES HIGHEST OVER AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES. 
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ANOTHER WW THAT WOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS SERN
SD...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE OR INTENSIFY DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

43439911 44030188 44170204 44480204 44900169 45160095
44769914 

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