[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031533 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VT / NRN NH / PARTS OF WRN ME...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031533Z - 031700Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHERE ISOLATED STRONG / LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR. 
AREA IS BEING MONITORED...HOWEVER WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS WEAK / CONVECTIVE VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS FAR
NERN NY INTO NRN VT...WITH SMALL CLUSTER OF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION
CROSSING CHITTENDEN COUNTY VT ATTM.  ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOW 60S...WEAK LAPSE RATES INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION BY MORNING
RAOBS SUGGESTS THAT ONLY MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON.

NONETHELESS...MODERATE / NEARLY UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY -- PARTICULARLY AT MID-LEVELS -- AS
JET STREAK S OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES / SRN ONTARIO TOWARD THE NERN CONUS.  INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES / LIMITED INSTABILITY
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO A FEW LOCALLY
STRONGER / DAMAGING GUSTS.

..GOSS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

46277005 45686924 44466966 43907129 43607333 44387333
45007321 45007154 45297135 45287087 45927026 46147028 

WWWW