[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030935 
NCZ000-031430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NC -- MHX-HAT AREA INCLUDING SRN OUTER
BANKS AND CAPE LOOKOUT

CONCERNING...TC TORNADO POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 030935Z - 031430Z

POTENTIAL FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY OVER WATER -- BUT MAY ALSO SPREAD NEWD FROM CAPE FEAR AREA
ACROSS OCRACOKE TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AS INNER BANDS OF HURRICANE
ALEX CROSS AREA.  BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT AND VERY
SMALL LAND AREA INVOLVED...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 

TIME SERIES OF VWP FROM ILM/MHX SHOWS INCREASE IN 0-1 AND 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPH SIZE OVER PAST FEW HOURS...AS SFC FLOW BACKS AND WINDS
INCREASE THROUGHOUT BOUNDARY LAYER.  GREAT MAJORITY OF ZONE WHERE
FAVORABLE SHEAR IS JUXTAPOSED WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...NWRN PORTION OF THIS REGIME SHOULD
SPREAD ONTO SRN OUTER BANKS THROUGH 10-11Z AND NEWD THEREAFTER. 
MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE WITHIN INNER BANDS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE LIFT.  RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED/ISOLATED/DISTINCT CELLS WILL
NOT BE VERY COMMON IN DENSE PRECIP FIELD OF INNER BAND
REGION...HOWEVER ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM WITHIN THESE BANDS MAY
ROTATE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...MOVING NWWD THEN WWD BEFORE DISSIPATING
N OF EYE.  MEANWHILE...CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THIS REGIME COMBINED WITH
TROPICAL WARM-CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES SHOULD RESULT IN 2-3 INCH/HOUR
RAIN RATES FROM HEAVIER CORES...SOME OF WHICH WILL TRAIN ALONG AXES
OF SPIRAL BANDS.

REF NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC FOR LATEST WARNINGS
AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON ALEX.

..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...

34687687 34937654 35187598 35297560 35297550 35247551
35207555 35097578 34867610 34567649 

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