[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030730 
SDZ000-030930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND W-CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030730Z - 030930Z

CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING EWD OVER NWRN SD AS OF 715Z IS FCST TO TURN
MORE ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SD...MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND FROM ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
ALSO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM TSTMS DEVELOPING IN WARM
ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF PRIMARY BOW.  MAIN CORRIDOR OF CONCERN ATTM
EXTENDS FROM ERN BUTTE COUNTY ACROSS SRN PERKINS...NERN
MEADE...ZIEBACH...NRN HAAKON AND STANLEY COUNTIES.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM THIS TSTM
CLUSTER ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD NEAR PIR...THEN TO NEAR FSD.  BOTH
FORWARD AND REAR PROPAGATION ARE POSSIBLE WITH NET SEWD TURNING OF
TRACK EXPECTED -- GENERALLY ALONG FRONT.  INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS
SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES INCREASING WITH EWD
EXTENT FROM 2000 J/KG OVER NWRN SD TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
SD.  WRN BRANCH OF LLJ WILL AID WITH LIFT -- GIVEN 20-25 KT 850 MB
SELYS AND 45-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AT THAT LEVEL INDICATED BY
VWP INTERPOLATIONS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

43830039 43950152 44260235 44810356 44990342 45180329
45380313 45360284 45310253 45180191 45030139 44870082
44710045 44469948 44269955 43979973 43920004 

WWWW