[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030702 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN THROUGH E-CENTRAL
IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030702Z - 030900Z

TSTM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z...ESPECIALLY OVER
EXTREME SERN SD/SWRN MN/WRN IA PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY...WNW-ESE ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
 FROM NWRN SD SEWD TO BETWEEN PHP-PIR...THEN ESEWD TO VICINITY FSD
AND DSM.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THIS FRONT. VWP/PROFILER
DATA INDICATES STRONGEST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE OVER
SERN-MOST SD AND NWRN IA...INVOF NOSE OF 30-35 KT LLJ...AND WHERE
850 MB FLOW TURNS SHARPLY FROM SWWD TO SEWD AS IN FSD VWP.  LOW
LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH WWD EXTENT AND BECOMES DIFLUENT ACROSS MUCH
OF NEB/SD BORDER REGION...BASED ON 850 MB STREAMLINES FROM
VWP/PROFILER PLOTS.  AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN QUITE
BUOYANT...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES PEAKING AROUND 4000 J/KG NEAR IA/SD
BORDER AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL SD AND
E-CENTRAL IA.

..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

41519267 42189534 42959828 43459892 43859936 44209947
44479909 44599852 44599820 44559774 44459719 44269635
43769468 43069331 42429211 41769174 41539213 

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