[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030636 
OHZ000-030900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1846
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND ADJACENT OH
SHORELINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030636Z - 030900Z

LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN-MOST LE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS ONT SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD TO SEWD OVER LE. ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD SWD
ENOUGH TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OH SHORELINE AS FAR W AS ERN OTTAWA
COUNTY...AND MAY APCH CLE AREA AROUND 9-10Z TIME FRAME.  A FEW GUSTS
NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE ATTM FOR WW.

ELEVATED MUCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG -- AIDED BY RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE JUST ABOVE SFC...SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS LE TOWARD PORTIONS OH SHORELINE.
 THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OVER RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
DIABATICALLY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT STILL WITH SBCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  BECAUSE OF
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 10-20 KT BETWEEN TOP OF BOUNDARY
LAYER AND 500 MB...PER REGIONAL VWP DATA AND RUC PROGS...
LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
ORGANIZATION.  ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND WITH RESPECT TO FCST
INFLOW IN 850-925 MB LAYER SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF LINE IS MOST
FAVORED FOR SWD PROPAGATION AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...

41718322 41498295 41308251 41138205 41158165 41238129
41568094 41828079 41998087 42138112 42228144 42008218
41778295 

WWWW