[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021924 
MTZ000-022130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021924Z - 022130Z

CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND/OR HAIL ACROSS SE AND CNTRL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT BACKED AGAINST THE MTNS
EXTENDING NWWD FROM NEAR BILLINGS TO SOUTH OF GREAT FALLS MT. SFC
HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO SFC-BASED
CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHERE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN THE MTNS. STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR OF ABOUT 35 KT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0
C/KM...WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH-BASED STORMS CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS RANGE FROM 25 TO
35 DEGREES.

..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

47831162 47260895 46780707 46150604 45610656 45610800
46461154 47311285 47601251 

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