[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022012 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-022215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022012Z - 022215Z

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS SRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS ERN SD WITH A SFC
LOW IN SRN SD. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER SE MN. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
CONSIDERING THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMOUNT OF CAPPING
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT FROM OMA EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN SD WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500 TO 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE FSD VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS
ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
VEERING FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN
BECOME MORE SFC-BASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE STRONG SHEAR WILL ALSO FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

43669296 43499392 43689764 44049886 44479884 44879825
44859587 44709389 44169283 

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