[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021831 
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV/SRN ID/WRN WY/NRN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021831Z - 022100Z

...STRONG/SVR TSTM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SPEED MAX OVER CNTRL/ERN NV PUSHING NWD
TOWARD NRN UT. AS THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...IT WILL
ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.
RECENT MESOWEST WIND GUSTS WITH THE STORMS ACROSS WHITE PINE CO IN
ERN NV HAVE REMAINED BELOW SVR LIMITS SO FAR...BUT STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN. MODIFYING THE 12Z SLC SOUNDING
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS SOME INHIBITION...BUT A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW INITIATION. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS
WILL BE STRONG DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30-35 KT AND FORECAST TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 50-55
DEGREES.

GIVEN WIND GUST POTENTIAL...DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAY INCLUDE UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK TO PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...MAINLY ACROSS NRN
UT/NRN NV.

..TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...VEF...BOI...LKN...

39061182 38391502 40561618 42901614 43591307 43740950
42660784 40330940 

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