[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021731 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-021930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI/FAR NE IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021731Z - 021930Z

A BOW ECHO CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL WI SHOULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI BY 21Z. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS LOWER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A CENTER OF INSTABILITY ACROSS
LOWER MI WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INSTABILITY
WILL HELP SUSTAIN AN MCS AND COLD POOL MOVING SEWD THROUGH WI. THE
LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CROSS LAKE MI AND REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES
INTO SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL JET OF 55 KT MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER WRN LOWER
MI BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD HELP THE LINE TO REMAIN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

41618582 42008677 42598740 43148760 44718671 45418526
44918360 44048280 42038407 41398501 41338507 

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