[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021644 
MIZ000-WIZ000-021845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI/UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021644Z - 021845Z

INITIATION OF NEW STORMS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING ACROSS NRN WI. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS
NRN WI EXTENDING NEWD INTO UPPER MI. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
HEATING IS HELPING STORMS INITIATE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...A
MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 55 KT IS MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN WI AND
UPPER MI TO ABOUT 35 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONSIDERING THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE AND FAIRLY COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS...THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

46038489 45268648 44828831 44968970 45429003 45898988
46428887 46728672 46728529 

WWWW