[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021611 
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-021815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/WRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021611Z - 021815Z

NEW CELLS MAY INITIATE ON THE ERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CNTRL AND ERN IL. THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED ONCE STORM INITIATION
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN IL WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG EXIST MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CNTRL IL EWD
TO INDIANAPOLIS. STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO ECNTRL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IF
NEW STORMS CAN DEVELOP...MOVEMENT WOULD TAKE THEM EWD INTO THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN IL AND WRN IND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN OVER TIME AS A
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM THE
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

40688898 41718884 42208861 42438804 42388716 41918649
40938643 39808685 39368766 39478853 39558860 39988902 

WWWW