[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021017 
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-021145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND SEWD INTO CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685...

VALID 021017Z - 021145Z

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS WW AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS OF 1005Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HP SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO
HYBRID CURRENTLY OVER MORRISON AND TODD COUNTIES INTO CNTRL MN
MOVING SEWD AT 30-40KTS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS WERE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER CLAY COUNTY MN AND BARNES COUNTY
ND. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LEADING STORM COMPLEX IS
MOVING ALONG COOL SIDE OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SEWD INTO
W-CNTRL WI /N OF EAU/...WHILE UPSTREAM STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED ABOVE RESIDUAL COLD POOL. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF STATIONARY
BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CO-LOCATION OF 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS THAT MORRISON/TODD COUNTY COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES SEWD...SO LONG AS IT CAN
CONTINUE TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE /I.E. CIN VALUES
OF -200 TO -300 J/KG/.

MAINLY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS OVER NWRN MN/ERN ND.

..MEAD.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

47109841 47109545 45099260 45109549 

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