[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020956 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-021130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO AND NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020956Z - 021130Z

STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL IA SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO INTO NERN
KS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER PLOTS SUGGEST
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A ZONE WHERE
PARCELS ARE BEING LIFTED SUFFICIENTLY TO THE LFC OVER STATIONARY OR
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG 35-45KT WSWLY LLJ JET AXIS. RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS REGIME INDICATE A MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ABOVE LOW-LEVEL CAP WITH
MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MOREOVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH THE
LOWEST 6KM OF THIS BUOYANCY LAYER REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. 

STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OR SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA AND NRN MO
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NERN KS. RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL POTENTIAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..MEAD.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

42899450 43289266 41869102 40219222 38649438 38689617
38919668 41559530 

WWWW