[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020802 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-020900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB/NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683...684...

VALID 020802Z - 020900Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONGOING STORMS...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING.

SEVERE...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO WHILE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO FAR NWRN IA.
THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /TO OVER
250 J/KG/ ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE MCS DEMISE. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND E OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY /STRETCHED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY/
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING ENHANCE BY 35-45KT WSWLY LLJ
OBSERVED ON THE OMAHA VWP AND FAIRBURY PROFILER.

..MEAD.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41739857 42879909 42919810 43279729 43599687 44009620
44229557 42189483 42169637 41749626 

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