[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020553 
MNZ000-NDZ000-020730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020553Z - 020730Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

AS OF 0530Z...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS WERE LOCATED FROM
PIERCE/BENSON COUNTIES OVER N-CNTRL ND SEWD TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER...AHEAD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE
STORMS ARE OCCURRING N OF A WARM OR STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ND EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN /NEAR BRD/.
WHILE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS N OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW ONLY A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM AROUND
700MB...OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE 
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. 

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL WITH EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS  N
OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...IF ACTIVITY CAN MOVE OR DEVELOP SWD TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD INCREASE. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF THIS SCENARIO
WERE TO UNFOLD.

..MEAD.. 08/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...

49019852 48859418 46089416 46099845 

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