[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011056 
MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND WRN/CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011056Z - 011230Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN MN SWWD INTO THE WRN IA /MAINLY W OF I-35/. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP NETWORKS INDICATE THAT
SUSTAINED ASCENT ABOVE REMNANT COLD POOL ALONG WLY 20-30KT LLJ IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
CNTRL/ERN SD ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ABOVE THE
CAP /WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE 850-700MB/ WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN
AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR THOUGH THE
BUOYANCY LAYER. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS
WITH BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

..MEAD.. 08/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

43759614 43779233 40689229 40529562 

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