[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010843 
NDZ000-MTZ000-011015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT INTO WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010843Z - 011015Z

DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AND
A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LEADING EDGE OF FAST-MOVING MCS EXTENDED FROM WRN DANIELS COUNTY SWD
ACROSS ERN VALLEY AND INTO NRN GARFIELD COUNTY AS OF 0830Z...WITH A
RECENT WIND GUST TO 72 MPH REPORTED AT GGW. WHILE INSTABILITY
REMAINS QUITE LIMITED /I.E. MUCAPES AOB 250 J/KG/ IT APPEARS THAT
FAST SYSTEM SPEED /EWD MOVEMENT AT 40-45KTS/ COUPLED WITH PRESENCE
OF REAR INFLOW JET /OBSERVED IN THE LOWEST 2KM PER GGW VWP/ SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS OVER WRN ND IS NEARLY STABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 50 J/KG OR
LESS. THUS...MCS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

..MEAD.. 08/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

49000622 49000361 46870361 46880626 

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