[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011711 
IAZ000-011815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 011711Z - 011815Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WRN IA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WEST/NORTH OF THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS. 

A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN SUX AND DSM... ABOUT 25
MILES NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES E-W ACROSS IA AND
THEN NWWD INTO CENTRAL SD. A 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE WSW IS
BEING LIFTED OVER THE BOUNDARY...FUELING THE STORMS WITH MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE 1/2 TO 1 INCH SIZE HAIL
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE
WNW AT 25 KT...STRONG BACKWARD PROPAGATION WILL RESULT IN THE STORMS
TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ESEWD. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND STRONG UPDRAFTS
WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER
HOUR WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..IMY.. 08/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

41749507 42029586 42209583 42429577 42809576 43039557
43029501 42859464 42629424 42219420 41889450 

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