[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010659 
IAZ000-MOZ000-010830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1812
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010659Z - 010830Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES SWD.

AS OF 0645Z...DSM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT-SEGMENT BOWING
STRUCTURE FROM BOONE COUNTY WWD ACROSS GREENE AND CARROLL COUNTY
MOVING SWD AT 30-35KT. BASE VELOCITY DATA SHOW A LOCAL CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER INBOUND VELOCITIES OVER BOONE COUNTY SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
MOVING/PROPAGATING SWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND IS LIKELY
BEING FED FROM THE SW BY SWLY 25-35KT LLJ FROM RESERVOIR OF STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS. IT APPEARS THAT
THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /I.E.
-150 TO -250 J/KG/...AND ONLY MODEST SYSTEM SPEED WILL TEND TO LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 08/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

42019578 42549294 41019236 40579521 

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