[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010441 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-010545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1811
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 677...

VALID 010441Z - 010545Z

PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG ERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME
WILL CONTINUE TO AID CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF NRN IA INTO SERN
MN/WRN WI.  TWO MAIN CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THIS
ZONE...NOTABLY OVER NWRN WI AND FROM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INTO WRN
WI.  NWRN IA THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD OUT OF
THE WW OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.  WARM ADVECTION APPEARS SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SERN MN/WRN WI CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR SOME
TIME.  HOWEVER THIS TOO SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 08/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

42719633 45149300 44508959 43289162 42099469 

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