[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 210640
SWODY2
SPC AC 210638

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CST SUN JAN 21 2007

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY EVE
WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC
SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BASIN BY EARLY MONDAY.  THE
ATTENDANT SFC FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE SERN STATES AND NRN GULF
COAST BY 12Z MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. 
UPPER JET ENERGY DIVING SEWD ACROSS BC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM ROCKIES TROUGH.  PARTS OF THIS
TROUGH WILL CUT-OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SETTLE SWD INTO NRN MEXICO ON
MONDAY WHILE THE NRN STREAM PORTION DIGS SEWD INTO THE ERN PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY.

...SRN GA/NRN FL,,,
SFC LOW EVOLUTION ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC BASIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
DECIDEDLY WLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN/EVE.  THIS WILL TEND TO LESSEN THE
OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE OVER THE SERN STATES VCNTY THE FRONT WITH
TIME.  MID-TROPOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARM BENEATH THE
FLATTENING RIDGE AXIS...RESULTING IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL.  FARTHER
N...GLANCING INFLUENCE OF LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/
ASCENT...PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND MODEST INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DEW POINTS MAY YIELD A COLUMN SUPPORTIVE FOR PARCELS TO REACH INTO
THE ICING LAYER FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.  HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE
THROUGH MID-AFTN AND MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NRN/SRN PARTS OF FL/GA
RESPECTIVELY.

...SERN AZ/SRN NM...
ISOLD TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCD
WITH THE DIGGING CUT-OFF LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN MEXICO. 
STRONGER ASCENT SHOULD SHIFT S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER VERY
EARLY MONDAY.  SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS/MOISTURE SHOULD
RESIDE ACROSS NRN SONORA/CHIHUAHUA.  AS A RESULT...TSTM
PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS SERN AZ/SRN
NM.

..RACY.. 01/21/2007