[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 211628
SWODY2
SPC AC 211627

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN JAN 21 2007

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

EWD DEVELOPMENT OF POLAR BRANCH LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NERN STATES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE LOWER LATITUDE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO.  IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OFF THE NC COAST MONDAY MORNING
WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
SEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF SC/GA INTO THE FL PENINSULA.

...SERN GA INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA...

DESPITE POOR LAPSE RATES...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY /SBCAPES OF 300-400 J PER KG/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY
AFTERNOON.  WEAK CAPPING COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IN GENERAL MOST UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW/WARM FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT/CHARGE SEPARATION. 
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...

CONSIDERABLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES /7-8 C PER KM/ WILL EXIST MONDAY
INVOF UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO.  WHILE MOST
OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
REMAIN S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SERN AZ/SWRN NM.  THIS THREAT
APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TOO WARRANT INCLUSION OF AN ADDITIONAL THUNDER
AREA.

..MEAD.. 01/21/2007