[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 140547
SWODY2
SPC AC 140546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SWWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES MONDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE NEWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD.
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL MOVE NE AND
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND
MUCH OF THE SERN STATES.

...S THROUGH S CNTRL TX...

ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WAKE OF SWD ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN POST FRONTAL ZONE OVER PARTS OF
TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY IN THE 700 MB TO 500 MB MIXED PHASE LAYERS OVER PARTS OF
S THROUGH S CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK
RESULTING IN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG. LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ELEVATED...SHALLOW CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ANY LIGHTING
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

..DIAL.. 01/14/2007